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February 2024 Cash Rate

Feb 06, 2024

Property and cash rate predictions for 2024

In the first cash rate announcement of the year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held the cash rate at 4.35%. This follows the release of inflationary data that shows the rate of annual inflation decreased in November (4.3%) compared to October (4.9%).

Before 2023 fades from the rearview mirror, we wanted to take a second to turn back and have a look at what we faced and look ahead at what 2024 might bring. 

Property

Despite many economists predicting a fall in house prices, we saw quite the opposite. According to Ray White data, the median house price across the nation increased by 8.2% and the median unit price increased 5.7%. Perth was the strongest market seeing a 15.3% growth in house prices over the year. Adelaide saw the largest increase in unit prices, increasing 10.4%.

2024 predictions

Ray White Chief Economist, Nerida Conisbee said factors such as population growth, interest rate changes and economic growth attracting investors could play a role in prices in 2024.

“The probability of a rate cut is now far higher than it was less than six weeks ago. If this does happen, it is likely to fuel price growth in not only our largest cities but also other parts of the country,” she said.

The major banks have forecast an expectation property prices will increase at a slower rate in 2024. A report released by CBA predicted a 5% lift in home prices this year saying “constrained supply and robust underlying demand” 

A recent CoreLogic survey collected responses from 1,400 real estate agents and found 59% strongly believed rising interest rates would have the biggest impact on property prices in 2024. 

Cash rate

The cash rate has increased 13 times since May 2022 - increasing by 4.25 percentage points. Last year alone saw the cash rate grow from 3.10% in January to 4.35% by the year’s end. That’s an increase of 1.25 percentage points that was then passed onto interest rates on products such as home loans.

2024 predictions

The big four have all predicted the cash rate has hit its peak with a chance the RBA will begin making cuts in the last quarter of the year. The predicted rate in December ranges from 3.60% up to 4.10% with further cuts predicted by economists through 2025.

Home loan interest rates

According to the RBA, the average home loan rate before the cash rate increases in May 2022 was 2.86%. By November 2023 it was 6.39% (keep in mind this is existing loans, which includes fixed-rate). According to Loan Market data, the average home loan in 2023 was $642,555. On a 25-year term paying principal and interest, that would be a difference of $1,292 a month with the monthly repayments today being $4,292.

2024 predictions

It is hard to predict where interest rates will be by the end of the year as some banks may compete more aggressively by cutting rates or offering deals. If we look at the cash rate predictions by the big four of cuts between .75 to .25 percentage points and apply that to the average interest rate in November of 6.39%, it would bring the interest rate to to between 5.64%-6.14%, if the lender passed on the cash rate cuts in full. This would save the above scenario between $292 to $97 per month.


03 Jan, 2024
The Australian Banking Association (ABA) has launched a campaign encouraging borrowers struggling with loan repayments to seek help, in a valuable reminder there are options available if you're finding it hard to keep up with your mortgage. Your bank may be able to: Reduce your home loan repayments. Pause your repayments temporarily. Switch your repayments from principal and interest to interest-only temporarily. Increase the length of your loan (thereby reducing the repayments). ABA CEO Anna Bligh said banks understood many borrowers were facing challenging circumstances. “Banks stood by their customers during the COVID-19 pandemic, deferring payments for people who for the first time in their lives found themselves unable to pay. Banks stand ready to help people again now,” she said. “People who are finding their finances are stretched should not feel they have no options and they have to do it on their own. Banks have dedicated, highly experienced teams ready to help.” As your broker, I'm also here to help. You're welcome to contact me for advice; I can then speak to and negotiate with your lender on your behalf. The key thing is to move fast, because the further you get ahead of the problem, the more flexible and helpful banks tend to be.
02 Jan, 2024
The Reserve Bank of Australia has rounded out 2023 with the decision to hold the nation’s cash rate at 4.35%. 2023 hasn’t been an easy year for homeowners or ambitious first-home buyers. The cash rate increased from 3.10% to 4.35% over the course of eleven months in the RBA’s bid to bring inflation back within its target range. According to data from the RBA, the average home loan rate at the start of the year (for existing home loans) was 5.46% p.a.. If the lender passed on interest rates in line with the increased cash rate, that would make the interest rate 6.71% p.a.. Based on the average Australian mortgage of $599,000 on a 25-year term paying principal and interest, that equals an additional $459 per month simply to service the mortgage (from $3,661 to $4,123 per month). For first-home buyers, the average time to save for a deposit has increased to 14 years, according to a recent paper by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute Limited, with the national ratio of median house price to median income now sitting at 8.5. That is the hard reality many Australians are currently facing. So the question is, what will 2024 bring? Short of looking into an Australian-economy crystal ball, we can’t predict exactly what will happen with inflation, the cash rate and therefore interest rates. However, there are a couple of factors to consider. The RBA will meet only eight times in 2024 to determine whether to move the cash rate, down from the eleven in 2023. This means potentially less movements through the year. The next cash rate announcement will be 6 February. Economists from the Big Four predict the cash rate is at, or near, its peak. Some predict at least one more rate hike in 2024 and rate cuts likely not happening until at least December. Despite predictions of a decline in house prices in 2023, they have actually continued to increase in most areas around the country. This could be good news for refinancers as we enter 2024, as they could find their equity has grown. Why 2024 could be a good time for first-home buyers Despite some potential challenges, 2024 could actually be a good time to get into the housing market. Here’s why. Savings interest rates are up - the pro of the cash rate going up is that savings interest rates also tend to go up. This can help expedite saving for a deposit. It could be cheaper to be a homeowner - according to PropTrack data, it is now cheaper to buy an apartment rather than renting one in most capital cities (based over a ten-year period with a 20% deposit). In fact, a third of properties nationally are cheaper to buy than rent. The First Home Guarantee has expanded - in 2023 the eligibility criteria for the First Home Guarantee, Family Home Guarantee and Regional First Home Buyer Guarantee was expanded, enabling eligible buyers to get into the market sooner. This means if you have a 5% deposit (or 2% if you are a single parent or guardian), you may be able to use one of the schemes to purchase property without paying lenders mortgage insurance. ‘Help to buy’ scheme to be introduced - the federal government has announced plans to rollout a new scheme that will help up to 40,000 eligible buyers with as little as a 2% deposit get into the housing market with lower repayments. If 2024 is the year you want to purchase your first home, it is a good idea to speak with your broker to find out how much you may be able to borrow and set a plan in place to achieve your goal.
01 Jan, 2024
Australians continue to buy new vehicles in record numbers, according to the latest data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI). A total of 106,809 new vehicles were sold in October, marking the fifth time in six months that a record for that particular month was set. Every state and territory recorded higher sales in October than the year before: Victoria = up 32.0% to 30,740 sales. New South Wales = up 22.8% to 33,001. Tasmania = up 20.8% to 1,996. South Australia = up 20.0% to 6,677. ACT = up 18.9% to 1,552. Queensland = up 16.4% to 21,937. Western Australia = up 12.3% to 10,166. Northern Territory = up 1.9% to 740. The strong October result took 2023 sales above 1 million – the first time this milestone had been reached by October. FCAI Chief Executive Tony Weber said there was strong demand for a wide array of vehicles across various price brackets. “After some challenging years through COVID, this milestone speaks to the range of vehicles available to consumers, affirming Australia's position as one of the world's most dynamic and competitive markets. It also reflects vastly improved supply chains,” he said. Broker v dealer finance If you want to buy a new vehicle, doing your research before taking out finance could save you thousands. Car dealers often work with one lender, however I work with a diverse range of lenders, which means I can really compare the market on your behalf.
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